{"id":45472,"date":"2024-11-13T21:49:39","date_gmt":"2024-11-13T20:49:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nodecharts.com\/nodecharts-034-on-chain-data-predicted-this-bull-run\/"},"modified":"2024-11-14T22:36:58","modified_gmt":"2024-11-14T21:36:58","slug":"on-chain-data-predicted-this-bull-run","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nodecharts.com\/en\/on-chain-data-predicted-this-bull-run\/","title":{"rendered":"Nodecharts #034 – On-chain data predicted this bull run"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

ABSTRACT<\/h2>\n\n
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Welcome to a new report from Nodecharts!<\/p>\n\n

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Since our last report, we have observed Bitcoin\u2019s price rise from $70,000 to $90,000<\/strong>. In that report, we mentioned the strategy based on the Signals <\/strong>moving average crossover, which indicated that we were on the brink of a bull run. If you missed it, you can review it here: Link to the report<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n

However, we didn\u2019t just point this out in our last report; for months, we have been indicating that the range in which Bitcoin\u2019s price remained for 8 months was showing, based on on-chain data, a reaccumulation range.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

As we have seen, Signals <\/strong>alone allows us to detect highly optimal entry and exit points. However, at Nodecharts, we always aim to optimize these strategies to offer on-chain data that allows our clients to maximize their investment returns. <\/p>\n\n

To improve both market entries and exits, and as many of you may already know, we recently launched STUDIO PRO<\/strong>, a tool that allows us to add multiple indicators on a single chart. Today, we\u2019ll analyze various metrics using a template created especially for advanced course<\/a><\/strong> students, which can be acquired by joining the course. <\/p>\n\n

In the following image, you can see the complete dashboard<\/strong>. We\u2019ll go through each metric to view the current network state and how we can detect a cycle end by combining them.<\/p>\n\n

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1. VOCD<\/h4>\n\n
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The Value Coin Days Destroyed <\/strong>metric shows the price at which coins are being spent. During bullruns<\/strong>, it typically moves in parallel with the price. Caution is advised when this value significantly exceeds the price, as it could indicate profit-taking by long-term coin holders. In the current context, we see that this indicator has not yet reached concerning levels, suggesting that long-term investors remain confident in the market. <\/p>\n\n

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2. Realized Price<\/h4>\n\n
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The realized price<\/strong> represents the average price that investors, in general, have paid for their bitcoins. In this metric, we want to see an increase, as shown in the image, since this reflects that the new price levels are being accepted by users entering the network. <\/p>\n\n

A sharp increase, along with other metrics, can indicate moments of overbought<\/strong> conditions. This should always be considered together with other metrics, such as the MVRV<\/strong>. At the moment, we have just started to rise, indicating a gradual acceptance of the new prices by the market. <\/p>\n\n

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3. MVRVs<\/h4>\n\n
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The MVRV<\/strong> is the ratio between market capitalization and realized capitalization (the same as market price to realized price). In this case, we have not yet exceeded the levels seen in March, and we are far from the values reached at previous cycle peaks. We believe it\u2019s essential to monitor the simple MVRV levels starting from 3-3.5<\/strong>. It\u2019s also important to observe the behavior of the Short-Term MVRV<\/strong> (ST) as the price advances. Additionally, if divergences appear between the price and MVRV, they could signal profit-taking. <\/p>\n\n

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4. Adjusted SOPR<\/h4>\n\n
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The Adjusted SOPR<\/strong> measures the realized profit or loss in transactions, excluding those that occur in less than an hour to remove short-term noise.<\/p>\n\n

This indicator has marked fairly clear zones where the market has taken substantial profits in the past. Currently, the values are far from those levels. It will be interesting to look for divergences similar to those in the MVRV<\/strong>; that is, if the price increases and the metric decreases, it could indicate faster profit-taking, which would be a sign of waning confidence in the movement. <\/p>\n\n

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5. Spent Supply<\/h4>\n\n
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The Spent Supply<\/strong> analyzes the bitcoins spent, focusing on the age of the coins moving within the network, classifying them into different cohorts based on the time they\u2019ve remained inactive or the profits achieved.<\/p>\n\n

We have provided a legend to understand what each color in the chart represents:<\/p>\n\n

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