This is a fundamental question we should consider at each stage of Bitcoin’s cycle.
How can we measure FOMO with on-chain data?
There are various metrics for analyzing this, one of which is Realized Capitalization Waves by time cohorts. To identify when users driven by the fear of missing out are increasing their activity, we simply filter for waves of less than 3 months.
In previous cycles, we observed these users reaching an accumulated value of over 80% in 2017 and more than 70% in 2021. Throughout Bitcoin’s history, these peak values have trended downward, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see lower percentages in this cycle. However, we are currently at only 30%.
Therefore, I believe Bitcoin’s price still has significant room to grow. When we see this metric rise above 50-60%, I’ll consider it time to pay close attention to the strength of Bitcoin’s price movement.